Saturday, 24 October 2026 · New York / London
Forecast desk active
News from Now On
Tomorrow's headlines, published today.
Edition No. 127
Forecast horizon: 72 hours
Weather forecast · Tomorrow Fetching tomorrow's forecast… Full forecast →
Today's forecast briefingThe world in probabilitiesPublished before events unfold
Forecasts0across 0 beats
Confidence mixHighlow uncertainty
Markets watched17open questions tracked
Public record77%2102 graded

What happens next

View all 0 forecasts →

By the numbers

See the full record →
77%Track record2102 forecasts graded
0Live forecastsin this edition
1174Hits+880 partial
48Missesclear misses to date
0Awaiting resolutionnot yet gradable
190/194Model vs marketmarket: 188 correct
Skill by horizon
79%D+1897 graded
77%D+2631 graded
73%D+3602 graded
Calibration by confidence
80%High42 graded
85%Medium253 graded
77%Low953 graded
Decision tree

What could change the lead forecast?

A forecast is a conditional judgment, not a claim of certainty. These are the paths we are watching.

13%

Kalshi

US–Iran nuclear deal by Dec 31 2026

2%

Kalshi

Russia–Ukraine ceasefire by Oct 31 2026

63%

Kalshi

Democrats control US Senate after 2026 midterms

The public record

Don't trust us.
Check the record.

77%2102 forecasts graded · 48 misses
✓ Resolved · hit

Tuesday Oct 27

Forecast Low% · Outcome verified 24 Oct

✓ Resolved · hit

Tuesday Oct 27

Forecast Low% · Outcome verified 24 Oct

✓ Resolved · hit

Tuesday Oct 27

Forecast Low% · Outcome verified 24 Oct