Tomorrow — Sun 9 Aug
+2 Days — Mon 10 Aug
+3 Days — Tue 11 Aug
Lead — Middle East / US Foreign Policy
Hormuz Deal Unsigned as of Saturday; August 17 Panic-Bargaining Window Opens Sunday — 8 Days to Deadline
Low Confidence
The Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz shipping arrangement remained unsigned on Saturday August 8. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed the joint statement is in final drafting and awaiting Supreme Leader Khamenei's approval. Sunday August 9: the August 17 permanent-deal political deadline is now 8 days away, activating the panic-bargaining scenario. Oman FM Badr al-Busaidi may communicate directly with Iranian FM Araghchi; Trump White House likely to issue a statement demanding signing by week's end. If signed Sunday: first vessel transit protocol applications begin; Brent drops toward $74–80. Model: 40% signed Sunday, protocols begin; 45% unsigned, August 17 panic-bargaining fully engaged; 15% collapse signals from Tehran hardliners.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+2. Deal unsigned Aug 8 Saturday. Sunday is next signing window; August 17 deadline 8 days.
Ukraine / Russia / Geopolitics
Russian Strikes Continue Through Weekend; Kremlin Silent; Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv Visit 15 Days Away
Low Confidence
Russian missile and drone attacks continued through the weekend. The Kremlin has still not formally responded to the US-Ukraine air ceasefire text proposal. The Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv visit (August 24) — 15 days away — remains the next major diplomatic milestone. Zelensky's public demand for additional US Patriot interceptors is outstanding. Sunday: Ukraine-EU-US coalition coordination continues; any Kremlin pre-visit signal would be expected to emerge this week (week of August 10). Ceasefire odds: Polymarket est. ~16%, Metaculus est. ~26%.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+2. Strikes continued Aug 8. Aug 24 Kyiv visit 15 days.
Energy / Commodities
Brent ~$82 Saturday; Sunday Thin Close; Houthi Escalation Adds Tail-Risk on Top of Hormuz Uncertainty
Low Confidence
Brent crude held ~$82 Saturday as the deal-unsigned risk premium was maintained. Sunday is thin weekend trading. The signing binary still dominates: if Hormuz arrangement signed Saturday evening or Sunday, Brent drops toward $74–80; if still unsigned, $80–86 holds. A new layer of risk emerged: 58 Saudi-backed Yemeni troops killed by Houthis on August 7 (deadliest attack since 2022) with Saudi coalition response expected Sunday — Yemen escalation adds a tail-risk premium on top of Hormuz uncertainty. If both remain unresolved, $86–92 not impossible.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+2. Brent ~$82 Saturday. Houthi escalation adds tail risk to deal-uncertain premium.
Middle East / Yemen
Saudi Coalition Airstrikes on Houthi Positions Expected Sunday; 58 Killed in Deadliest Attack Since 2022
Low Confidence
Houthi forces killed 58 Saudi-backed government troops (death toll revised upward from initial 38) in coordinated missile and drone strikes on August 7 — the deadliest Houthi attack since 2022. Al Jazeera analysis: the attacks "hint that a major battle in Yemen is brewing." The Saudi-backed Yemeni government vowed to respond "at the appropriate place and time." Sunday: Saudi coalition airstrikes on Houthi positions in Saada, Hajjah, and Marib expected; potential UN Yemen envoy emergency briefing; international condemnation. Houthi-Iran linkage: Iran faces pressure not to allow Yemen to derail the Hormuz deal. Model: 60% Saudi coalition airstrikes; 25% international condemnation + sanctions threats; 15% de-escalation offer.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+2. Death toll revised to 58. Saudi coalition response expected Sunday.
Japan / Natural Disaster
Kumamoto: 12 Days Post-Quake; ~46,700 Homes Still Dry; Diet Emergency Session Expected Monday
Low Confidence
Twelve days post-earthquake (M7.1, July 28, Kumamoto). Approximately 46,700 homes remain without running water as of August 8; the August 7 restoration target was missed and the end-of-August target is now the operative public expectation. Extreme heat (39–40°C) continues to hamper repair crews and endanger residents. Sunday: expanded water distribution, temporary housing transitions, heat emergency protocols. Government Diet emergency session expected Monday–Tuesday August 10–11 to authorize supplementary budget. Insurance sector preliminary loss estimates (~¥400B–1T) in weekend supplements. South Korean and Australian aid teams active.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+2. 11 days post-quake Aug 8. ~46,700 homes dry. Diet emergency session Monday.
Global Health / DRC
DRC Ebola ~4,250–4,350 Cases Sunday; G7 Pledging Conference Likely; WHO Emergency Committee 9 Days
Low Confidence
DRC Ebola confirmed cases reach approximately 4,250–4,350 by Sunday (3,973 as of Aug 5; ~99/day trajectory — now the largest Ebola outbreak in DRC history and second-largest overall). Deaths approaching 1,900. Uganda remains Ebola-free (declared July 28). WHO IHR Emergency Committee August 18 — 9 days away. G7 health ministers pledging conference announcement likely Sunday or Monday. WHO SAGE compassionate-use authorization for Bundibugyo experimental therapy pending this week. MSF field hospital expansion in North Kivu under review.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+2. DRC ~4,200 cases Aug 8. G7 pledging expected. WHO Committee 9 days.
Lead — Middle East / US Foreign Policy
Monday: August 17 Deadline 7 Days; If Hormuz Still Unsigned, Full Panic-Bargaining Week Begins
Low Confidence
August 17 permanent-deal political deadline is 7 days away on Monday. Two scenarios: if Hormuz arrangement was signed over the weekend, Monday sees IAEA Director-General Grossi expected to travel to Tehran; nuclear framework meeting scheduling begins; Brent settles into $74–80 post-deal equilibrium. If still unsigned: full panic-bargaining week begins — Iranian FM expected on international media; Trump likely issues ultimatum statement; Oman FM shuttle diplomacy resumes. The 30-day nuclear talks window has been compressing since August 5 (agreed in principle) — every day unsigned reduces the nuclear window before December 31, 2026. Model: 35% deal signed, nuclear talks framework confirmed; 45% unsigned, panic-bargaining week starts; 20% deal-collapse signals from Tehran.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+3. Monday Aug 10: Aug 17 deadline 7 days; deal unsigned as of Saturday.
Ukraine / Russia / Geopolitics
14 Days to Kyiv Visit: Week of Aug 10 Is Prime Window for Any Kremlin Pre-Visit Signal
Low Confidence
Fourteen days until the Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv visit (August 24). If the Kremlin plans any ceasefire signal before August 24, the week of August 10 is the most likely window. Monday: Ukraine-EU-US pre-summit planning at technical level; NATO member air-defense package (expanded Patriot) announcement possible — expected in response to Zelensky's public demand. Strike pattern: continuous. Kyiv visit agenda likely includes emergency Patriot package, ceasefire text exchange, and Ukrainian Independence Day symbolism. Ceasefire odds: Polymarket est. ~16%, Metaculus est. ~26% — any Kremlin signal would move these sharply.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+3. Monday Aug 10: 14 days to Aug 24. Kremlin pre-visit signal window opens.
Energy / Commodities
Monday Market Open: August 17 Binary + Yemen Escalation Both Priced; Brent Volatility Elevated
Low Confidence
Monday market open sets the week's energy direction. Two concurrent risk factors: the Hormuz deal binary (August 17 deadline 7 days) and the Houthi-Saudi escalation (58 Saudi-backed troops killed Aug 7). Brent scenario: $74–80 (Hormuz signed, Yemen stabilises), $82–88 (unsigned, August 17 pressure, Yemen exchange ongoing), $90+ (collapse signal or Saudi ground operation announced). OPEC+ September meeting approaching: Saudi Arabia calibrating post-Hormuz floor. Week of August 10 Brent volatility likely elevated.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+3. Monday open. Aug 17 binary + Houthi escalation both add risk premium.
Japan / Natural Disaster
13 Days Post-Quake: Diet Emergency Session Authorizes Supplementary Budget; Insurance Estimates Published
Low Confidence
Thirteen days post-earthquake (M7.1, July 28). Government Diet emergency session expected Monday–Tuesday August 10–11 to authorize the supplementary earthquake relief budget. Kyushu Shinkansen restoration timeline announcement expected this week. Insurance sector preliminary loss estimates (~¥400B–1T range) from weekend supplements to be cited in budget discussions. International aid teams (South Korea, Australia) continuing in Kumamoto. Water restoration: progress by neighborhood targeting end of August. JMA monitoring ongoing.
Fresh D+2. Diet session Monday. Insurance estimates published. Water progress by neighborhood.
Global Health / DRC
DRC Ebola ~4,400 Cases Monday; G7 Pledging Expected; WHO Emergency Committee 8 Days; SAGE on Therapy
Low Confidence
DRC Ebola approaching 4,400 confirmed cases by Monday. WHO IHR Emergency Committee August 18 — 8 days away. G7 health ministers joint funding pledges expected Monday–Tuesday. WHO SAGE meeting on Bundibugyo compassionate-use therapy authorization expected this week. North Kivu treatment capacity strain; MSF field hospital expansion under review. WHO Secretary-General likely issues public fundraising appeal. Any new Ebola case in Uganda restarts the 42-day clock; border surveillance ongoing.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+3. Monday: ~4,400 cases. G7 pledging + SAGE therapy meeting this week.
Germany / Domestic Security
Bundestag IP Retention Vote Expected Wednesday–Thursday; Dobrindt Detention Draft Near Completion
Low Confidence
16 days after the Berlin Pride van attack (July 25). The IP (internet protocol) address retention bill is expected to come to a Bundestag vote this week — Wednesday or Thursday August 12–13 — before the summer recess, with passage virtually certain given the grand coalition majority. Monday: opposition parties prepare final parliamentary arguments; legal scholars and digital rights groups publish analyses; ISP lobby in final push against. Interior Minister Dobrindt's preventive detention reform federal bill drafting underway (August 15 target). Rome Pride (August 15, 5 days away) security forces briefed on Berlin model protocols. Constitutional Court challenge expected within 90 days of passage.
Forecast revised: rolled from D+3. Monday Aug 10: IP retention vote expected Wed–Thu. Dobrindt draft nearly complete.
Lead — Middle East / US Foreign Policy
Tuesday: August 17 Deadline 6 Days; Maximum Pressure Week; Nuclear Talks Window Compressing
Low Confidence
August 17 permanent-deal political deadline is 6 days away on Tuesday. Maximum pressure week. If deal unsigned by Tuesday: Iranian FM and US officials competing in international media statements; Oman FM shuttle diplomacy at peak intensity; Trump social media ultimatum likely. The 30-day window for nuclear talks (which begins at Hormuz signing) compresses by one day each day unsigned. If signed Sunday–Monday: Tuesday sees IAEA Grossi travel to Tehran confirmed; nuclear framework meeting scheduled; Brent in $74–80 equilibrium. Model: 30% deal signed, nuclear talks framework confirmed; 50% unsigned, Tuesday panic-bargaining intensifies; 20% deal-collapse signals from Tehran hardliners or Supreme Leader veto.
Fresh D+3. Tuesday Aug 11: Aug 17 deadline 6 days. Maximum pressure week begins.
Ukraine / Russia / Geopolitics
13 Days to Kyiv Visit: Pre-Visit Signal Window Active; NATO Air-Defense Package Announcement Possible
Low Confidence
Thirteen days until the Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv visit (August 24). Tuesday is when the Kremlin pre-visit signal window is expected to be most active — if any gesture is coming before August 24, this week's signals would precede it. Ukraine-EU-US coordination: expanded Patriot air-defense package announcement by a NATO member possible Tuesday or Wednesday. Ukrainian Independence Day (August 24) coincides with the visit — symbolism may catalyze a Kremlin gesture. Strikes: continuous pattern expected. Market: Polymarket est. ~16%, Metaculus est. ~26%.
Fresh D+3. Tuesday Aug 11: 13 days to Aug 24. Pre-visit signal window active this week.
Energy / Commodities
Tuesday Energy Markets: Hormuz + Yemen Dual Risk; Aug 17 Binary 6 Days; OPEC+ September Emerging
Low Confidence
Tuesday energy markets priced on two concurrent risk factors: Hormuz deal status (August 17 deadline 6 days) and Yemen/Houthi-Saudi escalation. Model: $74–78 (both resolved positively); $82–88 (Hormuz unsigned, Yemen exchange ongoing); $88–95+ (Hormuz collapse signal or major Saudi ground operation in Yemen). Saudi Aramco quarterly commentary on Hormuz risk expected this week. OPEC+ September extraordinary meeting talk emerging if oil spikes above $90. Cape-route tanker rates remain elevated.
Fresh D+3. Tuesday: Hormuz + Houthi dual risk. Aug 17 6 days away. OPEC+ September context.
Middle East / Yemen
Saudi-Houthi Escalation Spiraling by Tuesday; Saudi Holds Iran Responsible; UN Emergency Briefing Possible
Low Confidence
Saudi-Houthi exchange intensifying after 58 government troops killed August 7. By Tuesday August 11: Saudi coalition airstrikes targeting Houthi missile and drone launch sites in northern Yemen (Saada, Hajjah, Marib) expected to be ongoing. UN Yemen Special Envoy Hans Grundberg expected to convene an emergency Security Council briefing. Saudi Arabia has signaled it holds Iran responsible for providing the missiles used — placing Iran under cross-pressure: sign the Hormuz deal or face Saudi Arabia linking Houthi attacks to the negotiations. Model: 65% continued Saudi-Houthi exchange (strikes/counter-strikes); 25% Omani-mediated de-escalation offer emerges; 10% major Saudi ground operation announced.
Fresh D+3. Tuesday: Saudi-Houthi escalation continues. Saudi holds Iran responsible. UN Security Council possible.
Global Health / DRC
DRC Ebola ~4,500+ Cases by Tuesday; WHO Emergency Committee 7 Days; SAGE on Bundibugyo Therapy
Low Confidence
DRC Ebola ~4,500+ confirmed cases by Tuesday at ~99/day trajectory. WHO IHR Emergency Committee August 18 — 7 days. G7 health ministers pledging conference announcements complete by Tuesday; OCHA tracking whether the $400M+ funding gap is being closed. WHO SAGE decision on Bundibugyo compassionate-use therapy expected this week. North Kivu treatment centers at capacity; international medical corps expanding. WHO Secretary-General in Geneva for pre-committee briefings. Any new Uganda Ebola case restarts the 42-day monitoring clock.
Fresh D+3. Tuesday: ~4,500 cases. WHO committee 7 days. SAGE therapy decision this week.
Germany / Domestic Security
Tuesday: Day Before Bundestag IP Vote; FDP-Linked Groups File Pre-Challenge; Dobrindt Draft Due Friday
Low Confidence
17 days after the Berlin Pride van attack (July 25). Tuesday August 11 is the day before the expected Bundestag IP retention vote (Wednesday–Thursday August 12–13). Final parliamentary arguments; digital rights groups and ISP lobby in last-push opposition. Interior Minister Dobrindt's preventive detention reform federal bill approaching August 15 cabinet target date. Rome Pride (August 15, 4 days away) — German security model being shared with Italian authorities. FDP-linked civic organizations expected to file a pre-emptive Constitutional Court challenge simultaneously with or shortly after passage.
Fresh D+3. Tuesday: day before IP vote. Dobrindt draft approaching completion. Rome Pride 4 days.
Forecast Scorecard
631 forecasts graded ·
84.3% overall accuracy ·
446 Hits, 172 Partials, 13 Misses ·
~30 Pending
Skill Curve by Horizon
accuracy = (Hit + 0.5×Partial) / graded
Confidence Calibration
| Confidence | Graded | Score |
|---|
| High |
11 |
90.9% |
| Medium |
146 |
89.1% |
| Low |
474 |
85.4% |
Higher confidence → higher accuracy ✓
Model vs. Market Benchmark
Comparable forecasts
87
Model correct
87 / 87
Market correct
87 / 87
Model beats market
0 / 87
Edition 51: graded 6 forecasts targeting Aug 8 — 5H, 1P, 0M. Market benchmark unchanged.
Today's Grades (targeting Aug 8)
ed50-d1-iran-warPartial
ed50-d1-ukr-warHit
ed50-d1-oilHit
ed50-d1-japan-quakeHit
ed50-d1-ebolaHit
ed50-d1-gaza-isfHit
Recent Grade Detail (Edition 50 → 51)
| Forecast |
Beat |
Horizon Made |
First Call |
Final Grade |
Note |
| ed50-d1-iran-war |
Middle East |
D+1 |
Hit |
Partial |
Deal still unsigned Aug 8; joint statement in final drafting, Supreme Leader approval pending |
| ed50-d1-ukr-war |
Ukraine |
D+1 |
Hit |
Hit |
Weekend strikes continued; Kremlin silent; Aug 24 visit confirmed |
| ed50-d1-oil |
Energy |
D+1 |
Hit |
Hit |
Brent ~$82 Saturday; deal-unsigned premium held as forecast |
| ed50-d1-japan-quake |
Japan |
D+1 |
Hit |
Hit |
~46,700 homes still dry Aug 8; Aug 7 target confirmed missed; heat ongoing |
| ed50-d1-ebola |
Global Health |
D+1 |
Hit |
Hit |
DRC ~4,100-4,200 cases Aug 8; Uganda Ebola-free; WHO Committee Aug 18 confirmed |
| ed50-d1-gaza-isf |
Middle East |
D+1 |
Hit |
Hit |
Uganda parliament vote confirmed (Aug 6); Morocco + 5+ countries committed; ISF building |
Story Threads
Each thread tracks a forecast story across multiple editions, from first call to final grade.
LIN-IRAN-DEAL — US-Iran War Settlement & Strait of Hormuz
First called: D+1, Edition 1, 13 Jun 2026 · Medium · Status: Active
Ed1 D+1 Hit
Ed1 D+2 Hit
Ed4 D+1 Hit
Ed5 D+1 Hit
Ed5 D+2 Hit
Ed5 D+3 Hit
Ed6 D+1 Hit
Ed6 D+2 Partial
Ed7 D+1 Hit
Ed7 D+2 Partial
Ed8 D+1 Hit
Ed9 D+1 Hit
Ed10 D+2 Hit
Ed11 D+1 Hit
Ed12 D+1 Hit
Ed12 D+2 Hit
Ed12 D+3 Hit
Ed13 D+1 Hit
Ed49 D+1 Partial
Ed50 D+1 Partial
Ed51 D+1 Pending
Ed51 D+2 Pending
Ed51 D+3 Pending
LIN-UKR-WAR — Russia-Ukraine War & Ceasefire Diplomacy
First called: D+1, Edition 1, 13 Jun 2026 · High · Status: Active
Ed1 D+1 Hit
Ed1 D+2 Hit
Ed4 D+1 Hit
Ed5 D+1 Hit
Ed49 D+1 Hit
Ed50 D+1 Hit
Ed51 D+1 Pending
Ed51 D+2 Pending
Ed51 D+3 Pending
LIN-OIL — Brent Crude / Hormuz Risk Premium
First called: D+2, Edition 18, 7 Jul 2026 · Low · Status: Active
Ed18 D+2 Hit
Ed49 D+1 Hit
Ed50 D+1 Hit
Ed51 D+1 Pending
Ed51 D+2 Pending
Ed51 D+3 Pending
LIN-EBOLA-DRC — DRC Ebola Outbreak (Second-Largest in History)
First called: D+2, Edition 27, 15 Jul 2026 · Low · Status: Active
Ed27 D+2 Hit
Ed49 D+1 Hit
Ed50 D+1 Hit
Ed51 D+1 Pending
Ed51 D+2 Pending
Ed51 D+3 Pending
LIN-JAPAN-QUAKE-2026 — Kumamoto M7.1 Earthquake Recovery
First called: D+1, Edition 42, 30 Jul 2026 · Medium · Status: Active
Ed42 D+1 Hit
Ed49 D+1 Hit
Ed50 D+1 Hit
Ed51 D+1 Pending
Ed51 D+2 Pending
LIN-BERLIN-ATTACK — Berlin Pride Van Attack & German Security Law
First called: D+1, Edition 39, 27 Jul 2026 · Medium · Status: Active
Ed39 D+1 Hit
Ed49 D+1 Partial
Ed50 D+3 Pending
Ed51 D+2 Pending
Ed51 D+3 Pending
LIN-GAZA-ISF — Gaza International Stabilization Force
First called: D+1, Edition 50, 7 Aug 2026 · Medium · Status: Active
Ed50 D+1 Hit
Ed50 D+3 Pending
Ed51 D+1 Hit
LIN-HOUTHI-ESCALATION — Yemen / Houthi-Saudi Escalation (August 2026)
First called: D+2, Edition 50, 7 Aug 2026 · Low · Status: Active (new thread)
Ed50 D+2 Pending
Ed51 D+1 Pending
Ed51 D+3 Pending
The Markets
Prediction-market odds estimated 8 August 2026. These feed confidence ratings on today's forecasts.
US × Iran permanent peace deal by Dec 31, 2026?
Estimated 18% (down 1 from Aug 7). Hormuz deal still unsigned Aug 8 Saturday — joint statement in final drafting, awaiting Supreme Leader Khamenei's approval. August 17 permanent-deal political deadline 9 days away. Polymarket ticking down as signing delay accumulates day by day.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
35% implied probability (est.) —
Kalshi
Estimated 35% (down 2 from Aug 7). Hormuz still unsigned Aug 8 — compressing the 30-day window for nuclear talks to begin. August 17 deadline 9 days. Kalshi pricing declining as each unsigned day narrows the nuclear window before Dec 31, 2026.
Russia × Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31, 2026?
Estimated 16% (down 1 from Aug 7). Weekend strikes continued; Kremlin still silent on ceasefire text. Aug 24 Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv visit 16 days. Houthi-Saudi escalation adds regional war risk premium and complicates the broader peace diplomacy.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Estimated 26% (down 1 from Aug 7). Strike pattern continuing over weekend; Kremlin silence maintained. Aug 24 Kyiv visit (16 days) remains the next significant diplomatic window before year-end.
The Record — What Actually Happened Today
Verified reporting from Saturday, 8 August 2026, used to grade yesterday's forecasts and seed today's.
Iran-Oman Hormuz deal still unsigned August 8; joint statement in final drafting, Supreme Leader approval pending
The Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz shipping arrangement remained unsigned on Saturday August 8. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed the joint statement is in final drafting and awaiting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's approval. The US, Iran, and Oman were still closing in on the interim arrangement (Axios). August 17 permanent-deal political deadline now 9 days away. Brent crude holding ~$82 on deal-pending expectations. No formal signing ceremony occurred Saturday; Sunday is the next signing window.
Russia-Ukraine weekend strikes continue; Kremlin silent; Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv visit Aug 24 (16 days) unchanged
Russian strikes continued over the weekend. The Kremlin has still not formally responded to the US-Ukraine ceasefire text proposal. The Witkoff/Kushner Kyiv visit remains scheduled for August 24 — 16 days away. Zelensky's demand for additional US Patriot interceptors outstanding. Ceasefire market odds declined slightly: Polymarket est. ~16% (down 1), Metaculus est. ~26% (down 1).
Houthi death toll revised upward: 58 Saudi-backed troops killed August 7 — deadliest attack since 2022; Saudi coalition response expected
The Houthi death toll from the August 7 attack on Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces was revised upward to 58 killed (initial reports said 38). Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree confirmed drone and missile attacks targeting multiple provinces. Al Jazeera reports the attacks "hint that a major battle in Yemen is brewing." Saudi-backed Yemen government vowed to respond "at the appropriate place and time." Saudi Arabia bracing for further Houthi strikes on Saudi territory. Iran faces pressure to rein in Houthis or risk derailing the Hormuz deal.
Kumamoto: 11th day post-quake; ~46,700 homes without water; Diet emergency session expected Monday
The August 7 water restoration target for Kumamoto earthquake (M7.1, July 28) victims was missed. Approximately 46,700 homes remain without running water as of August 8. Extreme heat (39–40°C) continues to hamper repair crews and endanger residents. The government's Diet emergency session is expected Monday–Tuesday August 10–11 to authorize supplementary budget. End-of-August restoration target is now the operative public expectation. Insurance sector loss estimates (~¥400B–1T range) emerging.
DRC Ebola ~4,100–4,200 cases August 8 (second-largest in history); Uganda Ebola-free; WHO Emergency Committee August 18
DRC Ebola confirmed cases stand at approximately 4,100–4,200 as of August 8 (3,973 as of Aug 5; ~99/day trajectory). The DRC outbreak is the largest Ebola outbreak in DRC history and second-largest overall. Uganda declared its outbreak over on July 28 (20 cases, 42-day monitoring complete). WHO IHR Emergency Committee meets August 18 — 10 days away. G7 health ministers pledging conference announcement expected this weekend or early next week. OCHA reports a $400M+ funding gap.
How the Forecast Engine Works
What this is
News from Now is an AI-generated daily forecast newspaper. Each morning, Claude reads verified world and politics reporting and extrapolates three horizons of plausible future news, the way a meteorologist reads current pressure systems to forecast tomorrow's weather. None of it has happened yet.
The three horizons
- D+1 (Tomorrow) — Detailed, mostly High/Medium confidence. Based closely on yesterday's verified reporting.
- D+2 (+2 Days) — Outlook. More speculative; confidence decays.
- D+3 (+3 Days) — Extended, Low confidence. Pattern extrapolation, not prediction.
Grading
Each forecast is graded when its target date arrives: Hit (substantially correct), Partial (directionally right, details off), or Miss (wrong). Accuracy = (Hit + 0.5×Partial) / Graded. The skill curve tracks accuracy by horizon — D+1 forecasts should be more accurate than D+3.
Lineage & threads
Each story thread is assigned a lineage_id. When a D+2 forecast rolls to D+1 the next day, it keeps its lineage_id. This lets the engine track a story's full arc: when it was first spotted, how it evolved, and whether the long-range or short-range forecast was more accurate.
Prediction markets
Where liquid markets exist (Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus), the engine captures implied probabilities and uses them to calibrate confidence. The model-vs-market benchmark tracks whether the engine outperforms the crowd.
What it is not
This is not a news service. The engine does not know the future. Every forecast is probabilistic, and the site is explicit that nothing on the forecast pages has happened. The Record section shows what actually occurred on each day, which is the only verified information on this site.